As I sit down to analyze the PBA's current landscape, I can't help but feel this might be one of the most exciting seasons in recent memory. The Rain or Shine Elasto Painters have always been that team that keeps you guessing - sometimes they look like championship contenders, other times they leave you scratching your head. This season, with all the roster changes and scheduling adjustments, I'm particularly curious about how they'll perform.
Let me start by sharing what I've gathered about their schedule this season. The PBA has structured Season 50 with three conferences, and Rain or Shine will be playing approximately 11 elimination round games in the Philippine Cup alone. From my experience following the league, I've noticed they typically play games on Wednesdays, Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays at venues like the Smart Araneta Coliseum and Mall of Asia Arena. What's interesting this year is the increased number of back-to-back games - something that really tests a team's depth and conditioning. I remember chatting with Coach Yeng Guiao last season, and he emphasized how crucial roster management becomes with this kind of schedule.
Now, talking about roster changes brings me to perhaps the most significant development - GEO Chiu being picked No. 1 overall by Terrafirma. This is huge, not just for Terrafirma but for how it affects teams like Rain or Shine. Personally, I thought Rain or Shine might have tried to move up in the draft, but they seemed content with their position. GEO Chiu stands at 6'10" and brings this unique skill set that we don't often see in local big men. I've watched his college games, and the kid has hands - soft touch around the basket, decent mid-range game, and surprisingly good passing vision for someone his size.
What does this mean for Rain or Shine? Well, they'll be facing Chiu at least twice during the elimination round, and I'm particularly curious about how their frontcourt of Beau Belga and Norbert Torres will handle him. Belga, with all his veteran savvy, might have some tricks up his sleeve, but Chiu's length could pose problems. From my perspective, Rain or Shine's success this season will heavily depend on how they manage these matchups against newly strengthened teams.
Looking at their backcourt situation, I'm genuinely excited about the continued development of Andrei Caracut and the veteran presence of Gabe Norwood. Caracut has shown flashes of brilliance, averaging about 12.3 points and 4.7 assists last conference, while Norwood, even at 38, remains one of the smartest defenders in the league. What worries me slightly is their three-point shooting - they ranked 7th in the league last season at around 31.4%, which simply isn't good enough for a team that wants to compete deep into the playoffs.
The team's schedule includes some intriguing stretches - they have a particularly tough run in mid-February where they'll face three playoff teams from last season in about eight days. That kind of stretch can either make or break a team's conference. I've always believed that how a team handles these compressed schedules tells you a lot about their character and depth.
Speaking of depth, Rain or Shine made some interesting moves in the offseason. They picked up a couple of players in the second round who I think could contribute immediately. One name that stands out to me is Keith Datu - he's raw but has tremendous upside. In my evaluation, he could be getting about 12-15 minutes per game by the second conference if he develops quickly.
The coaching situation remains stable with Coach Yeng, which I see as a positive. His system requires time to implement, and having consistency on the bench helps. However, I do wonder if they need to adjust their defensive schemes slightly, especially with the way the game has evolved towards more spacing and three-point shooting.
As we look ahead to their season opener, which I believe is scheduled for November 8 against Magnolia, there are several key factors that will determine their success. Their bench production needs to improve from last season's average of 28.4 points per game, and they must find ways to get easier baskets in transition. From what I've observed in their preseason games, they're pushing the pace more, which should help their offensive efficiency.
The PBA's decision to implement some rule changes this season, particularly regarding the physicality allowed in the post, could actually benefit Rain or Shine's style of play. They've always been a team that plays with great energy and movement, and if the officials call the games tighter, it might play into their hands.
What really fascinates me about this Rain or Shine team is their resilience. I've followed them since their franchise inception in 2006, and they've always had this never-say-die attitude. Even when they're not the most talented team on paper, they find ways to compete. This season, with the landscape changed by draft picks like GEO Chiu going to other teams, they'll need to dig deep into that resilience.
As we approach the tip-off of the new season, I'm cautiously optimistic about Rain or Shine's chances. They have the pieces to make a run, provided their young players develop quickly and their veterans stay healthy. The schedule is challenging but manageable, and if they can steal a couple of early wins, it could build the momentum they need for a deep playoff run. One thing's for sure - in the PBA, nothing ever goes exactly according to plan, and that's what makes following teams like Rain or Shine so compelling season after season.
